2036 Olympic Contenders: How Does India Stack Up Against the Competition?

India is officially in the race to host the 2036 Olympic Games, but a look at the recent Olympic medal record of the seven contenders offers a striking perspective on where the country currently stands.

Germany, Hungary, India, Qatar, the Republic of Korea, South Africa and Türkiye are the seven countries currently in Continuous Dialogue with the International Olympic Committee over the 2036 Games. The IOC has now confirmed that these interested parties will present their projects to the Future Host Commission in November, with the host expected to be elected in mid-2029.

But before the hosting debate moves towards infrastructure, funding, legacy and athlete experience, there is another obvious comparison: sporting performance.

And on that metric, India has considerable ground to cover. Across the last three Summer Olympics Rio 2016, Tokyo 2020 and Paris 2024 India has won 15 medals. That places India sixth among the seven countries currently in the 2036 race. Germany is comfortably ahead with 112 medals across the three Games, including 42 in Rio, 37 in Tokyo and 33 in Paris. The Republic of Korea follows with 73 medals, while Hungary has won 54 despite having a population of fewer than 10 million people.

Türkiye has accumulated 29 medals, South Africa 19 and India 15. Qatar, meanwhile, has won five medals across the three editions. The gap at the top is substantial. Germany's 112 medals are more than seven times India's total over the same period. For India, however, the trajectory is more encouraging than the three-Games aggregate suggests.

India's Olympic medal tally has improved significantly since Rio. At the 2016 Games, India returned with just two medals. Four years later, Tokyo produced seven medals the country's best tally at that point. Paris 2024 delivered six more. So while India's 15-medal total ranks it sixth among the current 2036 contenders, the trend since Rio is not one of stagnation. The country has established itself as a regular multi-medal nation across successive Olympic editions.

The bigger concern is the composition of that tally. India has won just one gold medal across these three Games Neeraj Chopra's historic men's javelin title at Tokyo 2020. That means 14 of India's 15 medals during this period have been silver or bronze. For a country with a population of more than 1.4 billion and ambitions of hosting the world's biggest sporting event, that remains a significant performance gap.

Germany's numbers provide the most formidable benchmark among the seven contenders. Its 112 medals across Rio, Tokyo and Paris include 42 medals at Rio 2016, 37 at Tokyo 2020 and 33 at Paris 2024. South Korea's 73 and Hungary's 54 also underline how established Olympic sporting systems can consistently produce medals. Hungary's performance is particularly noteworthy because of its relatively small population. Its 54 medals across three Games are more than three times India's tally.

That comparison does not mean population directly determines Olympic success. Olympic medals are driven by sporting culture, investment, talent identification, coaching systems, facilities, competition exposure and the depth of elite programmes. But it does demonstrate that a country's Olympic output is ultimately determined by how effectively it converts its available talent into international performance.

Hosting can change the equation

This is where India's 2036 ambition becomes particularly interesting. Hosting the Olympics is not simply about how many medals a country wins. The IOC's evaluation framework places significant weight on venue masterplans, athlete experience, funding, political and public support, Games delivery and long-term legacy.

And historically, host nations have often benefited from increased investment, infrastructure, preparation and athlete focus around a home Games. India would therefore have almost a decade between Los Angeles 2028 and a potential home Olympics in 2036 to build an elite sporting ecosystem. But hosting itself cannot be the strategy. The real question is what India does with the opportunity before 2036.

Before India can think seriously about a medal haul on home soil in 2036, Los Angeles 2028 will provide the clearest indicator of whether the country's Olympic programme is moving in the right direction. The target should not simply be to improve from six medals in Paris. A double-digit medal tally in Los Angeles would represent an important psychological and performance breakthrough.

Reaching 10 medals would mean India has moved from being a sporadic multi-medal nation to one with a broader Olympic base. A tally of 12-15 would be an even stronger statement and would provide momentum heading into the 2030s. The bigger objective, however, should be increasing the number of gold-medal contenders.

India cannot build a genuine Olympic powerhouse profile on silver and bronze medals alone. The country's recent performances in shooting, athletics, wrestling, boxing, hockey, archery, badminton and other Olympic disciplines show that the potential exists. The challenge is converting that potential into podium consistency and eventually gold.

The medal table tells two stories. The first is that India still trails most of its 2036 hosting rivals by a considerable margin. The second is that India's Olympic trajectory has been moving upward: two medals in Rio, seven in Tokyo and six in Paris. That upward curve now needs to become a sustained climb. If India can reach double digits in Los Angeles, broaden its medal-winning sports and increase its gold-medal output, the narrative around a potential home Olympics in 2036 could look very different.

The 2036 bid will ultimately be judged on far more than medals. But Olympic performance is one of the clearest indicators of the depth of a nation's sporting ecosystem.

So the immediate question is simple: How many medals should India target at the LA 2028 Olympics?

Ten should be the minimum benchmark. Fifteen would signal a genuine breakthrough.